Identifying extreme but plausible market conditions
Article 30
1. The framework described in Article 29 shall reflect the risk profile of the CCP, taking account of cross-border and cross-currency exposures where relevant. It shall identify all the market risks to which a CCP would be exposed following the default of one or more clearing member, including unfavourable movements in the market prices of cleared instruments, reduced market liquidity for these instruments, and declines in the liquidation value of collateral. The framework shall also reflect additional risks to the CCP arising from the simultaneous failure of entities in the group of the defaulting clearing member. 2. The framework shall individually identify all the markets to which a CCP is exposed in a clearing member default scenario. For each identified market the CCP shall specify extreme but plausible conditions based at least on: (a) a range of historical scenarios, including periods of extreme market movements observed over the past 30 years, or as long as reliable data have been available, that would have exposed the CCP to greatest financial risk. If a CCP decides that recurrence of a historical instance of large price movements is not plausible, it shall justify its omission from the framework to the competent authority; (b) a range of potential future scenarios, founded on consistent assumptions regarding market volatility and price correlation across markets and financial instruments, drawing on both quantitative and qualitative assessments of potential market conditions. 3. The framework shall also consider, quantitatively and qualitatively, the extent to which extreme price movements could occur in multiple identified markets simultaneously. The framework shall recognise that historical price correlations may breakdown in extreme but plausible market conditions.