ANNEX IVSupplementary provisions
ANNEX IV LIST OF PARAMETERS ON PROJECTIONS 1. Mandatory parameters on projections Assumptions for general economic parameters — Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (value at given years or annual growth rate and base year) — Population (value at given years or annual growth rate and base year) — International coal prices at given years in euro per tonne or GJ (Gigajoule) — International oil prices at given years in euro per barrel or GJ — International gas prices at given years in euro per m 3 or GJ Assumptions for the energy sector — Total gross inland consumption in Petajoule (PJ) (split by oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear, other) — Total electricity production by fuel type (oil, gas, coal, renewables, nuclear, other) — Energy demand by sector split by fuel (delivered) (suggested sectors are energy industries, industry, commercial or tertiary, residential and transport) — Assumptions on weather parameters, especially heating or cooling degree days Assumptions for the industry sector For Member States using macroeconomic models: — The share of the industrial sector in GDP and growth rate For Member States using other models: — The production index for industrial sector (suggested split is energy intensive industry based on physical production and manufacturing industry based on monetary value) Assumptions for the transport sector For Member States using macroeconomic models: — The growth of transport relative to GDP For Member States using other models: — The growth of passenger person kilometres — The growth of freight tonne kilometres Assumptions for buildings (in residential and commercial or tertiary sector) For Member States using macroeconomic models: — The level of private consumption (excluding private transport) — The share of the tertiary sector in GDP and the growth rate For Member States using other models: — The rate of change of floor space for tertiary buildings and dwellings — The number of dwellings and number of employees in the tertiary sector Assumptions in the agriculture sector For Member States using macroeconomic models: — The share of the agriculture sector in GDP and relative growth For Member States using other models: — The livestock numbers by animal type (for enteric fermentation beef, cattle and dairy cows, sheep, for manure management also pigs and poultry) — The area of crops by crop type — The emissions factors by type of livestock for enteric fermentation and manure management and by type of crop and the fertilizer use (tonnes) Assumptions in the waste sector — Waste generation per head of population or tonnes of municipal solid waste — The organic fractions of municipal solid waste — Municipal solid waste disposed to landfills, incinerated or composted (in tonnes or %) Assumptions in the forestry sector — Forest definitions — Areas of: — managed forests — unmanaged forests 2. Recommended parameters on projections Assumptions for general economic parameters — GDP growth rates split by industrial sectors in relation to 2000 — Comparison projected data with official forecasts Assumptions for the energy sector — National coal, oil and gas energy prices per sector (including taxes) — suggested sectors are electricity and heat generation, industry, commercial, residential and transport. Constant prices should be quoted — National electricity prices per sector as above (may be model output) — Total production of district heating by fuel type Assumptions for the industry sector — Assumptions fluorinated gases: — Aluminium production and emissions factors — Magnesium production and emissions factors — Foam production and emissions factors — Stock of refrigerant and leakage rates For Member States using macroeconomic models: — Share of GDP for different sectors and growth rates — Rate of improvement of energy intensity (1990 = 100) For Member States using other models: — Index of production for different sectors — Rate of improvement or index of energy efficiency Assumptions for buildings (in residential and commercial or tertiary sector) For Member States using macroeconomic models: — Share of tertiary and household sectors in GDP — Rate of improvement of energy intensity For Member States using other models: — Number of households — Number of new buildings — Rate of improvement of energy efficiency (1990 = 100) Assumptions for the transport sector For Member States using econometric models: — Growth of transport relative to GDP — split by passenger and freight — Improvements in energy efficiency — split by vehicle type — Improvements in energy efficiency — split by vehicle type, specify whether it applies to whole fleet or new cars — Rate of change of modal split (passenger and freight) — The growth of passenger road kilometres — The growth of passenger rail kilometres — The growth of passenger aviation kilometres — The growth of freight tonne kilometres on the road — The growth of freight tonne kilometres by rail — The growth of freight tonne kilometres by navigation Assumptions for the agriculture sector For Member States using econometric models: — Agricultural trade (import/export) — Domestic consumption (e.g. milk/beef consumption) For Member States using other models: — Development of area of crops, grassland, arable, set-aside, conversion to forests etc — Macroeconomic assumptions behind projections of agricultural activity — Description of livestock (e.g. by input/nutrient balance, output/animal production, milk production quota/productivity of cattle) — Development of farming types (e.g. intensive conventional, organic farming) — Distribution of housing/grazing systems and housing/grazing period — Parameters of fertiliser regime: — Details of fertiliser use (type of fertiliser, timing of application, inorganic/organic ratio); — Volatilisation rate of ammonia, following spreading of manure on the soil; — Efficiency of manure use. — Parameters of manure management system: — Distribution of storage facilities (e.g. with or without cover): — Nitrogen excretion rate of manures — Methods of application of manure — Extent of introduction of control measures (storage systems, manure application), use of best available techniques — Parameters related to nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils (e.g., Nitrogen leaching fraction, emission factor for direct emissions, Nitrogen content in crop residues) — Amount of manure treatment